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Miami FSU, Weekend Picks, & Numbers

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Miami may be off this weekend, but my picks never sleep. I discuss FSU's trip to Miami and analyze my year of results. The numbers tell me I should never travel to the Midwest, especially on Saturdays.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

I haven't enjoyed a Miami game that much in years. There is nothing better than quieting the doubters. The Canes completely dominated UNC on both sides of the ball. Miami led 44-6 midway through the 3rd quarter, allowing my mind to drift towards November 15th. I've kept the faith all year and continually told people this season could still be special. The stage is set for an epic rivalry under the lights in primetime. Miami has won three straight and seems to have turned the corner. If FSU beats Virginia, the Noles will enter Sun Life Stadium with an undefeated record and a significant win streak on the line.

When RJ Bell at Pregame.com tweeted earlier this week that Miami could actually be favored against FSU, I immediately heard from fans that thought FSU should be favored by a touchdown or more. Many Miami fans still don't believe in this team. Bell clarified this comment later in the week and said FSU will probably open as a small favorite. I think the line will end up with FSU being favored by 3 or so. Vegas believes in the Canes, who are 5-0 at home and have blown out three straight opponents. The numbers support Miami's chances as well. Check out this article from SBNation's Bill Connelly about ACC projections.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/11/5/7161467/acc-football-projections-predictions-duke-florida-state

Florida State will clearly be the biggest challenge Miami has faced this season. I can't wait for the hype to kick into overdrive early next week.

If you don't already, follow me @Jpickens15 to make sure you see all my weeknight picks, stadium pictures, and Miami positivity.

table

Inside the Numbers

- I'm 9-23 (28%) in games involving at least one Big Ten team.  I'm 67-55-1 (55%) when I steer clear of slow-paced "Man Ball." It's clear that my overall performance has been mediocre, but if I had somehow decided to completely avoid the Big Ten, I'd be a savant at this point.

- I own games played on weeknights. My 21-11-1 (66%) record is the type of success I've been craving. I've come to despise the song "Working for the Weekend." If I could convince the NCAA to avoid playing games on Saturdays, I'd be in much better shape.

- I've been pleasantly surprised by my success in picking games in the smaller conferences - 24-18 (57%). If I don't turn things around in 2015, at least I know I can find work writing to a small audience of Sun Belt and MAC enthusiasts.

- I'm 12-9 (57%) in games involving teams from Florida (FSU, UF, UCF, USF, UM). That bodes well for my chances of picking a winner next Saturday night at Sun Life Stadium.

- I'm 1-7 (13%) in games involving teams from Michigan. I don't care what Jeff Daniels says, that state is my enemy. All of the above stats are a complete disaster for my picking Michigan State this Saturday night, considering I'm below 50% in the following areas - Home Team, Favorite, Big Ten, Saturday games. Urban Meyer owes me a big thank you when his team pulls away thanks to a Pickens jinx.

- I'm 3-7 (30%) in games involving Arizona or Arizona State. I hate dry heat and thrive in extreme humidity.

- I'm 8-2 (80%) in games involving Oregon or Oregon State. The Civil War pick will be a lock.

- In picks where the line is exactly 10, I'm 8-1 (89%) this season. In picks where the line is exactly 9.5, I'm 0-4. Not sure what this means, but it's strange.

- In Toss-Up games where the line is 2.5 or less, I'm 12-4 (75%) this season. When the line is between 2.5 and 7, I'm a dreadful 18-31 (37%). Let's hope the Miami FSU line stays under 3.

THE PICKS

There are some huge games this weekend with playoff and conference title implications. Miami has a bye so I'm giving my readers some time off as well. I'm just listing my picks today to see if that will lead to better results somehow. The Duke pick is a win-win situation for me. Either my pick wins or I fall into a trap and Duke is upset, which would really help the Canes in the Coastal. Oregon and Alabama have too much offense for Utah and LSU, despite both favorites playing on the road. Indiana can't complete a forward pass and Kansas is still Kansas. Georgia Southern is one of the hottest teams in the nation so it's time I come along and jinx them. Larry Coker's success story was written a bit too early this season and Rice will blow out UTSA. Notre Dame's defense has injury issues and will struggle in Tempe. Enjoy your Saturday.

CLEMSON -21 at Wake Forest   730pm - ESPN - THURSDAY

WYOMING +7 vs Utah State   8pm - ESPN2 - FRIDAY

GOLDEN PICK

PENN STATE -6.5 at Indiana   12pm - BTN

RICE -9.5 vs Texas-San Antonio   12pm - FSN

BAYLOR +5.5 at Oklahoma   12pm - FS1

MINNESOTA +1.5 vs Iowa   12pm - ESPN2

DUKE -3.5 at Syracuse   1230pm - ESPN3

WEST VIRGINIA -3.5 at Texas   330pm - FS1

ARIZONA STATE -2.5 vs Notre Dame   330pm - ABC

IOWA STATE -3.5 at Kansas   330pm - FSN

WASHINGTON STATE +8 at Oregon State   4pm - Pac-12 Network

GEORGIA SOUTHERN -12.5 at Texas State   4pm - ESPN3

WASHINGTON +4.5 vs Ucla   7pm - FS1

TCU -6 vs Kansas State   730pm - FOX

ALABAMA -6.5 at Lsu   8pm - CBS

MICHIGAN STATE -3 vs Ohio State   8pm - ABC

OREGON -8 at Utah   10pm - ESPN