State of the U 2015-16 ACC Basketball Preview and Predictions

What do you do for an encore when your conference has the defending National Champions as well as what should have been the NIT Champs (minus one horrendous call) ?

Well to start you come back with a powerful UNC team that returns nearly everyone from last year's Sweet 16 group and is poised for even bigger and better.

Aforementioned defending champion Duke reloads bolstered by the #2 recruiting class in the country.

Veteran two time defending regular season champs Virginia brings back most of its' core as well as its' trademark pack line defense.

2012-13 Champs Miami have by far their best and most experienced squad since the team that cut down the nets in Greensboro.

FSU adds a top 10 class to the most explosive player in the conference (Xavier Rathan-Mayes).

And we haven't even mentioned Rick Pitino's Louisville group,  the team Jim Boeheim has built in Syracuse, nor the defending tournament champion Notre Dame.

This is the deepest and best basketball conference in America, hands down.

All of which makes prognosticating the season to come a difficult chore.

Nonetheless my ACC regular season predicted order of finish is below.

#1 - North Carolina Tar Heels

Why I have them here -  This is a very deep, talented, and big team. 6'9 PF Brice Johnson (12.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg) has really filled out since coming to Chapel Hill as a 190 pound freshman. His elite touch around the basket and athleticism should lead to an even higher scoring average this season. He is joined up front by talented space eating C Kennedy Meeks and high flying sophomore wing Theo Pinson (who should fill the J.P. Tokoto role). Both players can defend but Pinson is a slight question mark after missing a lot of time last season with injury. The back court is led by senior All-American candidate PG Marcus Paige (14,1 ppg 4.4 apg) who should be even better this season now that he is fully healthy. 6'8 G/F Justin Jackson show a lot of promise as a true freshman last season, and could be the team's best scorer when all is said and done. They also boast a deep bench, with players like Nate Britt, Joel James, Joel Berry II, 6'8 freshman Luke Maye, and solid post presence Isiah Hicks (a former top 20 recruit), all of whom who could start for 95% of the teams in the country. Roy Williams has plenty of options, and this group can really pound you in the paint.  Plus there is something very symmetric about a huge UNC season following a NC for Duke.

Keys to the season -  Get consistent shooting out of Jackson. He really shot the ball well coming down the stretch, and the Tar Heels will need more of that to win the conference.  Outside shooting may be their Achilles Heel (no pun intended).

Best case scenario -   Jackson lights it up and so does Paige. That, combined with their ridiculous inside strength, leads to a return to glory. The NCAA academic scandal stays in the rear view mirror until several sets of nets are cut down.

Worst case scenario -  They don't get enough outside shooting, struggle from the line, and can't out muscle everyone in the conference.  They finish top 5 in the ACC but are relegated to a middle seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Player on the rise -  Justin Jackson.  He's big, has an easy stroke, moves well with out the ball, and can put it on the deck.  16+ ppg in 2015-16 for the sophomore from Texas would not shock me.

#2 Miami  Hurricanes

Why I have them here -  Experience, talent, and a whole lot of L.   Miami has finished better than the ACC media predicted for them in the preseason, every single year since Jim Larranaga took over. On Wednesday they were picked 5th. Something tells me they are going to exceed expectations again. For starters they may have the best starting 5 in the country. Yes, I said it, and believe it.  Everyone knows Sheldon McClellan (14.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, ACC best for a G 48.4% FG%) can ball. What's scary is he got much more aggressive and confident toward the end of the season. Look for that to carry over.  Wing Davon Reed is the best player in the conference no one talks about.  His statistics last season were modest (other than shooting a ridiculous 45.7% from three) but that was due in part to missing the start of the season with injury. The 6'6 Reed can handle, shoot, finish, and especially defend.  Together Reed and McClellan give UM a wing tandem comparable to UVA's Malcolm Brogdon & Justin Anderson combination.  And look how well that worked for the Hoos the past few seasons. The 'Canes also return the conference's leader in rebounding last year, 7'0 Tonye Jekiri, and PG Angel Rodriguez who had an up and down first year in Coral Gables but clearly has the talent and leadership to man the point.  Add to the mix Oklahoma State transfer Kamari Murphy who is relishing his junkyard dog role, and you have a scary starting unit. The bench will be led by sharpshooter James Palmer, tough as nails G Ja'Quan Newton, Stretch 4 Ivan Cruz Uceda, and a pair of freshmen in Ebuka Izundu (7'2 wingspan) and swiss army knife Anthony "Amp" Lawrence Jr.  All 10 scholarship players should contribute.

Keys to the season -  Reed and McClellan need to be the alphas.  Rodriguez can occasionally take over but this team is better when he distributes first.  They need to stay healthy as well. This is a deep team but every component will be needed to finish this high.

Best case scenario -   Murphy gives them the ingredient they were missing last season, Jekiri and McClellan play like NBA 1st rounders, Rodriguez racks up the assists and not the bricks, and Coach L leads the Hurricanes to their second conference title.

Worst case scenario -  They Jekyl and Hyde it up again and sweat it out on Selection Sunday.

Player on the rise -  Davon Reed. This kid has the talent to average 12ppg, 5 rpg, 3 apg, and be first team all conference defensively.

#3 Duke Blue Devils

Why I have them here -  It's just so much to ask for a team to win that big again with so many freshmen leading the way. The kids will have to do it again this year for Coach K to cut down the nets yet again. They do have some solid returning core players, like PF Amile Jefferson (6.1 ppg 5.8 rpg), quickly improving SG Grayson Allen, big man Marshall Plumlee, and steady G Matt Jones.  But the team will still need monster performances from incoming studs like super skilled 6'9 Brandon Ingram (best of the bunch), new PG Derryck Thornton, 6'10 big Chase Jeter, and wing Luke Kennard.  Ingram should be ridiculous from get, but Thornton has some huge shoes to fill for the departed Tyus Jones.  Also who fills the toughness/clutch void of Justise Winslow?  This group is good, but last year's trio (we haven't even mentioned Jahlil Okafor's departure) was special.

Keys to the season -  Finding the same chemistry and defensive intensity that led them to the 2015 NCAA Championship.

Best case scenario -    Ingram plays like an All-American from the onset, Allen turns into a spectacular shooter, and Thornton runs the club smoothly.  Duke wins the ACC and goes back to the Final Four, and we all laugh at me for picking them this low.

Worst case scenario -  The young players play like young players.  Duke out talents the opposition to a solid season but not one for the ages.

Player on the rise -  Grayson Allen.  Not just a catch and shoot player.  Very underrated as an athlete, and showed lots of toughness in the NC game Vs Wisconsin as well.

#4 Virginia Cavaliers

Why I have them here -  Malcolm Brogdon (14ppg, 2.4 apg, 3.9 rpg) is arguably the best returning player in the conference.  He is joined in the back court by classic pass first PG London Perrantes (4.6 apg), who won't shoot much but has a penchant for making big shots in crunch time. PF Anthony Gill is a bruising scorer down low and an all conference type defender to boot, and Mike Tobey is arguably one of the more underrated pivots in the country. They will miss Anderson a ton, but 6'8 Evan Nolte and 6'5 Marial Shayok are both capable players. Shayok in particular could really pick up some of the scoring slack following Anderson's departure to the NBA. Look for expanded roles for bench players like 6'11 bruiser Jack Salt, and 6'7 wing Isiah Wilkins.  The Hoos have a very good first 7/8, but may not be as deep as previous seasons.  A few things are for certain though. One,  Brogdon is a beast.  And two, they will play sensational defense night in and night out.

Keys to the season -  Find enough scoring.  This is always the main concern for Tony Bennett's squad. Minus Anderson it will be magnified.

Best case scenario -    Shayok really steps up, and Brogdon, Gill, Tobey, and Perrantes do their things. For the 3rd straight season UVA wins the ACC regular season.

Worst case scenario -  They win their share of games, but have nights where the offense resembles something pre shot clock. Virginia takes a slight step backward after two stellar years.

Player on the rise -  Marial Shayok.  He may start, he may come off the bench, but he will definitely score a lot more.

#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Why I have them here -  PG Demetrius Jackson (12.4 ppg 3.1 apg) is ready to be the team's star, and Zach Auguste (12.9 ppg 6.5 rpg) is one of the best returning players in the ACC down low.  But you don't just replace players like Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton with no drop off at all.  Sharpshooter Steve Vasturia can pick up some of the slack, and wings Bonzie Colson and V.J. Beachem can also both score. Newcomers Elijah Burns and Matt Ryan and holdover Martinas Geben should also make them deeper down low.  But how good will this team's defense be? And is Jackson good enough to do all the things Grant did (including as a leader)?  They should be still be very good, but repeating as ACC Tourney champs may be a tall order considering what they lost.

Keys to the season -  Jackson explodes as a player and Vasturia is a good as Connaughton was. They have huge shoes to fill this year, but the Irish's remaining stars are pretty good in their own right. They need to show that from day 1.

Best case scenario -  ND remains a juggernaut offensively and shoots their way to the top of the conference.

Worst case scenario -   They miss Grant more than they know and finish somewhere toward the middle of the ACC.

Player on the rise -  Steve Vasturia.  The junior from Medford N.J. averaged 10.1 ppg last year and shot 41% from deep.  He should increase the ppg by 3-4 and continue to shoot a high percentage from beyond the arc given his very pretty stroke.

#6 Florida State Seminoles

Why I have them here -  Xavier Rathan-Mayes (14.9 ppg) is sick. Two times last season he went for 35, and who can forget what he did in a narrow loss at Miami (30 points in 4 minutes)? How good will he be now that he has had a summer to improve?  FSU also returns solid, versatile, underrated wing Montay Brandon, sweet shooting PG Devon Bookert, 6'9 wing Jarquez Smith, and a deep front court featuring 6'8 Phil Cofer, 7'3 Boris Bojanovsky (who can really score at times), and 7'1 Michael Ojo (plays well in spurts).  But what's really got the folks excited in Tallahassee (besides Dalvin Cook) is an incoming freshman class ranked #8 in the country by 247 Sports.  McDonald's All-American Dwayne Bacon and Georgia product Malik Beasley are pair of very strong wings.  Bacon is particular is a pure scorer who should drastically improve the Seminoles offense. JUCO transfer Benji Bell should help the back court scoring, and 6'6 F Terrance Mann adds to the already sick depth. They also have a 7'4 project in JM Christ Koumadje in this very intriguing class.  The big questions are, #1 are their enough shots to keep everyone happy and #2 will they play Coach Leonard Hamilton's trademark stifling D to form with this many new players?

Keys to the season - Find the right chemistry between holdovers XRM, Brandon, and Booker and newcomers Bacon, Mann, and Bell among others.

Best case scenario - Rathan- Mayes and Bacon are unstoppable and the D brings back memories of the ACCT Champs of 2012. Florida State not only surprises the ACC but the country with their immense talent.  They can win the conference if all breaks right.

Worst case scenario - The young guys struggle on D, and the O can't find its' identity. XRM plays well but turns the ball over too much.  They finish middle of the pack in the conference.

Player on the rise - Xavier Rathan-Mayes.  Who else?  He can average 20 points a game if he gets enough shots, and he's also a very smart passer.   If he continues to develop as a PG, XRM has a spot in the NBA Lottery in his future.

#7 Louisville Cardinals

Why I have them here -  They are going to miss Montrezl Harrell, Chris Jones (dismissed during season last year), and Terry Rozier a ton. Their losses mean this team will have a whole new identity in 2015-16. Drexel transfer Damion Lee can light it up though, and 6'10 Mangok Mathiang has the physical presence if not yet the skill set, to make up some for Harrell's departure.  Sophomore Quentin Snyder did some nice things at the point last year when Jones was kicked, and they also have nice pieces in graduate transfer SG Trey Lewis and bigs Chianu Onuaku and Anas Mahmoud.  Freshmen like G Donovan Mitchell (great shooter) and big man Raymond Spalding are also promising players.  A drop off seems imminent for Rick Pitino's team,  but they won't fall off the map completely. They also have to deal with the distraction of a pending investigation into a recruiting/prostitution scandal.

Keys to the season -  The D will always be there.  Can Lee fill it up consistently? They need to find solid #2 and #3 options as well.

Best case scenario -  Lee plays like a star, and Onuaku, Snyder, and Mathiang develop into top flight players.  The Cardinals finish top 3 in the ACC and make another spirited run in the NCAAs.

Worst case scenario -  The scandal implodes the season, Pitino resigns (it could happen), and the miss the tourney.

Player on the rise - Mangok Mathiang.  He should be one of the better shot blockers in the conference with increased minutes. His offensive game will rely a lot on offensive rebounds, but he could be a double digit scorer nonetheless.

#8 North Carolina State Wolfpack

Why I have them here -   Anthony "Cat" Barber could be the best PG in the conference. He can score, pass, and really defends on the ball well.  He will really miss back court running mate Trevor Lacey though, as well as wing Ralston Turner. Making up for the production of Turner and Lacey will a major challenge for the Pack this season. Abdul-Malik Abu can help things along if he gets more touches. The 6'8 Abu can score on the block and knock down 15 footers.  6'9 C BeeJay Anya is the team's best shot blocker, but he too has some talent down low. West Virginia transfer Terry Henderson will likely start opposite Barber at G.  He'll be counted on to knock down open shots, and do a little of everything, similar to what Lacey did. The problem is he is not quite as good at anything as Lacey was. Twins Caleb and Cody Martin are wings with a lot of potential.  If they, and/or F Lennard Freeman step up their respective games, it would also help Mark Gottfried's unit quite a bit.

Keys to the season -  Abu, Anya, and Henderson score night in and night out, and NC State plays better defense than we are used to seeing.

Best case scenario - Led by the sensational Barber, the Pack run past the opposition and into the upper third of the ACC and make a run in the NCAAs.

Worst case scenario -  The D is mediocre and they can't score enough. They fall to the lower half of the conference.

Player on the rise - .Abdul-Mailk Abu.  This guy needs more minutes, more touches, and more shots.

#9 Syracuse Orange

#10 Pittsburgh Panthers