Miami opened as a 2-point favorite against Florida State according to VegasInsider. Miami is 4-0 (1-0 ACC) and FSU is 3-2 (0-2 ACC). The game is at Hard Rock Stadium at 8pm Saturday on ABC.
Florida State started the season with a dramatic rally to beat Ole Miss, but has struggled since, losing in a blowout at Louisville and in a close game vs UNC yesterday. Since losing star safety Derwin James to a injury, FSU’s defense has been a disaster. FSU has faced good quarterbacks this season, but this is still a shocking stat. The Noles have given up 36 plays of 20+ yards in 5 games, worst in the nation. In all four games against FBS opponents, FSU has given up 34 points or more. FSU’s offense is still scary though, led by a player who has destroyed the Canes the past two years - RB Dalvin Cook.
Miami used another strong performance on defense to beat Georgia Tech 35-21 in Atlanta yesterday. The Canes lead the nation in TFL per game with 12. Miami’s opponents are converting just 21% of the time on third down (13-61). Miami hasn’t faced anywhere near the competition FSU has seen so far, but the Canes have been in complete control in every game this season. Brad Kaaya should have a big game on Saturday against very vulnerable FSU secondary.
Florida State has owned this rivalry recently, winning six straight against Miami. The last time the Canes won was in 2009 in Tallahassee. Miami hasn’t beaten FSU at home since 2004. Both of those streaks could come to an end on Saturday night.
The Canes have all the momentum heading into this matchup. Miami hasn’t allowed a point in the first quarter this season. I’ll be picking the Canes to jump on FSU early and earn the win fans have been desperately waiting for.