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Miami Wisconsin - The Orange Bowl, Malik Rosier, Science, and 9 in a Row

The Canes are back in a marquee bowl game. About time. I make some picks and need a miracle comeback the next two days.

NCAA Football: Virginia Tech at Miami Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

MIAMI +4.5 vs Wisconsin - 8pm - Orange Bowl

Wisconsin has played six games away from Camp Randall Stadium this season. A close loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship and five road wins against Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, BYU, and Nebraska. Those five teams have one thing in common - they all failed to qualify for a bowl. Miami is hosting the Orange Bowl and the home-field advantage is currently being overlooked by the oddsmakers. In night games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, the Canes were unstoppable. Miami has more overall team speed and a defense that is highly motivated to make a statement after the blowout loss to Clemson.

Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has had a special season, but is also prone to fumbling. Even the most loyal Badger fans would admit to feeling nervous every time Alex Hornibrook drops back - 15 interceptions on just 284 pass attempts this season. I expect the turnover chain to make an early appearance tomorrow night.

My Orange Bowl MVP prediction is a redemption performance by Miami QB Malik Rosier. Fully healthy and eager to prove he could still be a favorite for the 2018 starting job, Rosier will play one of his best games of the season. Wisconsin leads the nation in several defensive categories, but they won’t be facing Illinois on Saturday night at the Rock. Miami wins a close, low-scoring game 20-13.

Bowl Spin

I've been looking for a way to explain my bowl record all week. Finally, last night, President Trump gave me an opportunity. Saying global warming is fake because it's cold outside today is the kind of motivational spin I need. Most statisticians would agree that I'm dreadful at picking bowl winners. 99 percent of them confirm that my record is 8-17 - 32%. But there is that one guy out there that knows that I won with Oklahoma State yesterday. He knows that most bowl results aren't legitimate and possibly rigged. And that once the you throw out Pac-12 games and ACC games and Group of 5 games, I'm actually putting up some decent numbers.

I refuse to believe I'm actually as bad as my record says. Miami is going to win, but if they don't, please find someone else to blame (even though my bowl jinxing powers are likely the cause of the defeat.)

Some quick bowl thoughts

  • The coaching in bowl games has been atrocious the past two weeks. Every game features an embarrassing fake punt failure followed by conservative clock management from the 1970’s.
  • Did Virginia even attempt to prepare for Navy? Bronco Mendenhall won’t be getting a holiday card from me next winter.
  • I hate the Pac-12. Utah’s win was the only bright spot - I’m 1-5 in Pac-12 bowl games so far.
  • I need to win all nine of the games in this article to get back to 50% for bowl season. Assuming each game is a coin flip, my chances of doing that are 1 in 512. So you’re saying there’s a chance...... If I win the first eight, it all comes down to watching the Canes take control of the Orange Bowl.

Friday

TEXAS A&M +3 vs Wake Forest - 1pm - Belk Bowl

NCST -7 vs Arizona State - 3pm - Sun Bowl

NORTHWESTERN -7 vs Kentucky - 430pm - Music City Bowl

NEW MEXICO STATE +4 vs Utah State - 530pm - Arizona Bowl

OHIO STATE -7 vs Southern Cal - 830pm - Cotton Bowl

Saturday

LOUISVILLE -6.5 vs Mississippi State - 12pm - Taxslayer Bowl

MEMPHIS -3 vs Iowa State - 1230pm - Liberty Bowl

WASHINGTON +1.5 vs Penn State - 4pm - Fiesta Bowl