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Week Seven Lines and Picks

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Craig Smith look to build on a solid Week 6, in which he went 7-3 overall with a parlay hit.

NCAA Football: Florida State at Miami Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

(FULL DISCLAIMER. This article is simply for fun. Chide me, praise me, do whatever. Just know that I’m here to give my two cents and offer a perspective on a game or games that maybe you’re on the fence about. Giving you something to consider that may help you go one way or another. Not forcing you to fork over your money to a sports book. But, of course, if you win, break me off 5%. All lines courtesy of VegasInsider.com)

Last week: 5-3 single games; 1-0 parlays; 1-0 teasers

Overall single games: 31-22

Lockity Lock Hits: 5-1

Overall parlays: 2-4

Overall teasers: 3-3

Kaboom. A parlay hit, a teaser hit, and 5-3 in single game picks certainly qualifies as a bounce back week. This week has a number of enticing games, with four of the state of Florida’s top teams on the road – USF at Tulsa, UCF at Memphis, Florida at Vandy, and Miami at Virginia. On with this week’s picks…

Lockity Lock of the Week:

UCF (-4.5) at Memphis

Aight, Knights. I’ve read over and over UCF’s bravado on Twitter about their “championship” and winning streak, which…when you think about it….is really akin to beating a five-year old in a footrace, given their laughable schedule (we have you to thank for this, Auburn). Let’s see what they do on the road Saturday afternoon against a meh Memphis team (yeah, it was a close game last year, but this year’s Memphis team was flat-out smacked by a poor Tulane squad a few weeks ago, mind you). If UCF is half as good as their fans boast, they should win and comfortably cover.

Other lines I like:

FLORIDA (-7) at Vandy

Florida is heating up at the right time. Vandy’s Kyle Shurmur is going to find it hellish trying to complete a forward pass on Saturday against Florida’s athletic secondary.

VIRGINIA TECH (-5.5) at Unc

Ryan Willis and Damon Hazelton will continue to be one of the better QB-WR duos in the ACC and Virginia Tech will force enough turnovers to keep UNC comfortably at bay.

Rutgers at MARYLAND (-23.5)

Rutgers has fared slightly better against teams that can run, rather than those that can pass. And still, Maryland’s running attack will flatten possibly the worst team in Division I football.

Texas Tech at TCU; THE OVER (-59)

In most years, the over would be a given here. However, the Horned Frogs’ defense is tops in the Big 12 in scoring defense. The number has slid from 63 to 59 partly as a result of TCU’s improved play on that side of the ball. And I don’t think it’ll really matter. Call this one a gut feeling. Texas Tech will score (they always do) and give the ball away enough to give TCU a short field or two, and they will combine to break the 60-point total.

Minnesota at OHIO STATE (-29.5)

Minnesota won’t be able to protect Zach Annexstad, who will continue throwing the ball to the wrong team and set up quick Buckeye scores (has thrown 6 picks in last 2 games!). The Ohio State offensive machine will take over and roll to a cover.

USF (-7) at Tulsa

If you can’t blow out Tulsa on the road, who can you blow out? Jordan Cronkite and the South Florida rushing attack will lead the Bulls to an easy win on Friday night before a national audience.

MIAMI (-6.5) at Virginia

DeeJay Dallas tweeted early this week that they were back to work. If that’s true, and this team has seen and accepted that a sub-par effort (not my take – Richt talked about this on Monday morning on WQAM) can cost you, hopefully they will take the field actually ready to play this Saturday night. If so, their defensive front will produce the turnover chain multiple times and N’Kosi will continue to lead an inconsistent but improving offense over an outclassed Virginia squad.

Teasers of the Week (6-point shift)

USF (-1) at Tulsa; VIRGINIA TECH (+0.5) at Unc

FLORIDA (-1) at Vandy; Minnesota at OHIO STATE (-23.5)

Need a lot of road success here, but the quality of each visitor against its home counterpart is worth that risk. Bringing Ohio State’s line down to -23.5 makes that even more of a lock.

Parlay of the week

USF (-7) at Tulsa; UCF (-4.5) at Memphis; VIRGINIA TECH (-5.5) at Unc

Looking for some road warriors in what should be very winnable environments.

So, let’s hear it, Canes fam. Tell me why I’m wrong, and what YOU think is going to happen.