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Week 11 Lines and Picks

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After a bounce back Week 10, with a parlay hit, we take a stab at Week 11 action.

NCAA Football: Florida State at Miami Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

(FULL DISCLAIMER. This article is simply for fun. Chide me, praise me, do whatever. Just know that I’m here to give my two cents and offer a perspective on a game or games that maybe you’re on the fence about. Giving you something to consider that may help you go one way or another. Not forcing you to fork over your money to a sports book. But, of course, if you win, break me off 5%. All lines courtesy of VegasInsider.com)

Last week: 5-2-1 single games; 1-0 parlays; 1-1 teasers

Overall single games: 44-39-2

Lockity Lock Hits: 6-4

Overall parlays: 3-7

Overall teasers: 4-10

A third parlay hit on the year and 5-2-1 showing in single games helped right the ship following an overall crappy October. Georgia and Alabama flexed their muscles, showing that their respective lines were significantly misplaced, and that they’re head and shoulders above the rest of the SEC. Ohio State continued to be horrible, especially on defense, so lesson learned with them (who coaches that hideous defense, by the way? I’m sure a Tennessee fan could tell you).

On to Week 11….

Lockity Lock of the Week:

Miami at GA Tech; the under (54)

Holy crap, are you kidding me? 54 points? Has anyone in Vegas seen Miami’s piss-poor excuse for an offense over the last month. Georgia Tech is no better on defense that the saps that shut down whoever Mark Richt trotted out during that span (yes, I’m pissed like the rest of you). Miami’s defense is athletic enough to keep Ga Tech’s offense from completely rolling, and playing Tech means you get less possessions and an overall shortened game. I’ll take the under and run here.

Other lines I like:

Miss State at ALABAMA (-23.5)

Screw it, why not bet Alabama every week? State was shut down last time they faced a good defense at LSU, and now they’re about to face an even better one and an offense led by the greatest college QB we’ve possibly ever seen? In Tuscaloosa? Sure, I’ll lay the points.

KENTUCKY (-5) at Tennessee

Kentucky is coming off bitter disappointment, yes, but they get the perfect bounce back opportunity in a trip to Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, a place that used to haunt them. Now, that house of horrors has evolved into General Neyland’s Bed and Breakfast: thousands of satisfied visitors leaving each year. Add Kentucky to that list.

Auburn at GEORGIA (-14)

Auburn rallied last week, sure, which could give them a little bit of belief that, at 6-3, their season isn’t a total failure. However, Georgia is another beast altogether, with the passing game showing up in Lexington to compliment the best ground threat in the country. Rivalry game, be damned. Good luck, War Eagle.

Florida State at NOTRE DAME (-16.5)

I don’t care if Sean Astin is playing QB for the Irish. Florida State has quit, and that Irish defense might score enough to cover alone. Irish big.

MICHIGAN (-37.5) at Rutgers

This might be close to a cover by halftime. Michigan is for real this year.

South Carolina at Florida; the Under (54)

Like Miami – Ga Tech, Florida’s offense is in shambles, so this number confuses me greatly. Sure, Jake Bentley and the South Carolina offense have looked nasty the last two weeks against Tennessee (second half of that game, anyways) and at Ole Miss, but………that’s……Tennessee and Ole Miss. The Gator defense is much more talented than both. Do the Gators still care after getting their doors blown off by Mizzou? We’ll see, but I’ll roll with the under nonetheless.

Tcu at WEST VIRGINIA (-11)

The ‘Eers still have everything to play for and are galvanized after last week’s incredible comeback win at Texas. Conversely, TCU has been one of the country’s biggest disappointments this year.

Teasers of the Week (6-point shift)

Ohio State at MICHIGAN STATE (+10); Wisconsin at PENN STATE (-2)

I could see Ohio State winning a close game, so kicking this up to 10 for Sparty makes me feel much better. Penn State should get by Wisconsin at home, but this accounts for what could be a close game between two teams with nothing left to play for.

Parlay of the week

Auburn at GEORGIA (-14); Miami at Ga Tech, under (54); MICHIGAN (-37.5) at Rutgers

So, let’s hear it, Canes fam. Tell me why I’m wrong, and what YOU think is going to happen.