Week 12 Lines and Picks

(FULL DISCLAIMER. This article is simply for fun. Chide me, praise me, do whatever. Just know that I’m here to give my two cents and offer a perspective on a game or games that maybe you’re on the fence about. Giving you something to consider that may help you go one way or another. Not forcing you to fork over your money to a sports book. But, of course, if you win, break me off 5%. All lines courtesy of VegasInsider.com)

Last week: 5-2 single games; 1-0 parlays; 1-1 teasers

Overall single games: 49-42-2

Lockity Lock Hits: 7-4

Overall parlays: 3-8

Overall teasers: 4-11

Another decent week in single-game picks, but Ohio State being a weekly enigma and screwing me again blew up my teaser. This week, it’s Cupcake Saturday, with pre-rivalry-week lay ups littering the schedule. There are some truly bizarre lines and interesting trends going on in Vegas (see Northwestern-Minnesota and Sparty-Nebraska), so let’s jump in and take a stab at Week 12 action…

Lockity Lock of the Week

NEVADA (-14.5) at San Jose State

SJSU is arguably the worst program in D-1. Conversely, Nevada is playing well and still in contention for the Mountain West title. Wolfpack trample the Spartans in one of the more strangely underwhelming lines in recent weeks.

Other lines I like

INDIANA (+28.5) at Michigan

Hoosiers have covered the spread the last 4 against the Wolverines. With Ohio State on the horizon, it’s a perfect time to get less than Michigan’s best, although U of M will win comfortably.

Virginia at GEORGIA TECH (-5)

Tech is hot right now. If the Hoos get down, it’s a dink and dunk offense that can’t get back into it easily. They will get down, and the Tech machine will roll into UGA week with another win.

Tulsa At NAVY(-6)

Tulsa is near the bottom of the barrel in the NCAA, allowing over 230 yards per game in the ground. It’s been a crappy season for the Midshipman, and Tulsa has hung around In several games, but Navy will give their seniors the same strong effort they gave against UCF recently and control the game on the ground.

Wisconsin at PURDUE (-4)

It’s looking like Alex Hornibrook might not play, so this line is especially enticing if it’s the Jack Coan show for another week. Purdue got drubbed at Minnesota in one of the year’s more bizarre results. Jeff Brohm is Louisville bound, but Purdue’s offense at home outpaces its lifeless Wisconsin counterpart.

SYRACUSE (+10) vs. Notre Dame

This game is going to a high-scoring fight. The Orange have the offense to keep up with the Irish offense boosted by the return of Ian Book.

Miami - Virginia Tech; the under (53)

Still broke/ain’t fixed Miami offense against a Bud Foster defense in Blacksburg, and Tech’s offense against Miami’s solid D? College over/unders can be hard to figure out, but the over does not add up to me here.

Michigan State at NEBRASKA (-1)

Okay, Brent Musberger and VSiN Network...you’ve got my attention on this one. Lots and lots of action coming into the Vegas books on Nebraska, and given how well Adrian Martinez and the Husker offense is playing, it’s understandable. Sparty’s offensive performance against Michigan and Ohio State were among the worst I’ve seen from a ranked team this year, with putrid QB play from Lewerke or whoever they trotted out there. Sparty might score some against a bleh Nebraska D; the Huskers will score more at home.

Teasers of the Week (6-point line shift)

Kansas at OKLAHOMA (-28.5); MISSOURI (PK) at Tennessee

UAB (+22.5) at Texas A&M; TEXAS TECH (PK) at Kansas State

Unlv at HAWAII (PK); Cincy at UCF (-1)

Parlay of the Week

Nevada (-14.5) at SJSU; Virginia at Georgia Tech (-5); Mich St at Nebraska (-1)

So let’s hear it, Canes fam. Tell me why I’m wrong, and what YOU think is going to happen.