ESPN reports that fourteen teams can win the college football playoff. Florida State and Florida did not make the list. We knew that was coming. If either FSU or UF won the national championship this year, too many miracles would have to take place. But Miami is a different story. First and foremost, we’re ranked in the preseason top ten.
Teams outside of the top fifteen generally don’t compete for national championships. A. they aren’t good enough to begin with. B. it’s hard for a team outside of the top fifteen to eek their way into the major bowl game, much less the college football playoff (think UCF).
ESPN gives one reason why Miami could in theory make the college football playoff. It’s the schedule, wherein Miami is favored to win every game this year until the ACC championship game.
It seems to work logically that if a team is predicted to win every game, perfection would follow. Except in reality, and because we have inconsistency at quarterback, I don’t see how Miami could win every single regular season game in 2018.
That’s why ESPN pegs us at a 7% chance of making the playoff and only 1% chance of winning the national title. Same odds as Michigan. Better odds than Stanford.