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Week Four Lines and Predictions

Craig Smith is looking to get off a 4-5 streak in Week 4.

Savannah State v Miami Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

(FULL DISCLAIMER. This article is simply for fun. Chide me, praise me, do whatever. Just know that I’m here to give my two cents and offer a perspective on a game or games that maybe you’re on the fence about. Giving you something to consider that may help you go one way or another. Not forcing you to fork over your money to a sports book. But, of course, if you win, break me off 5%. All lines courtesy of

Last week: 4-5 single games; 0-1 parlays; 1-0 teasers

Overall single games: 17-12

Lockity Lock Hits: 3-0

Overall parlays: 1-2

Overall teasers: 2-1

Another 4-5 week in single game picks brings the ledger to 5 games over .500 for the year. Still, 3-0 on my locks and 2-1 in teasers. On with this week’s picks…..

Lockity Lock of the Week:

PENN STATE (-28) at Illinois

40 points would still be an easy bet for the Nittany Lions. Illinois is a train wreck, and how Lovie Smith coached in the Super Bowl continues to be a mystery. Give the points and kick your feet up.

Other lines I like:

OHIO STATE (-37) at Tulane

No Bosa, no problem. Talent gap here spans 37 points and then some.

STANFORD (-2) at Oregon

Mario Cristobal’s bunch looked bleh in a 35-22 win over San Jose State a week ago. In fact, they’ve looked just ok against bottom feeders so far this year. This is a big test, but I’ll trust a David Shaw-prepared team here.

(Underdog pick) TEXAS A&M (+26.5) at Alabama

We know that Bama is really, really good. We also know that Kellen Mond can make some plays against a very good defense, as we saw against Clemson. Beating a team with the talent level of A&M by 4 touchdowns is a lot to ask anyone, so I’ll take the Aggie and the points.

WISCONSIN (-3) at Iowa

Iowa due for a letdown plus Wisky coming off a gut-check loss = Wisky on the road.

FLORIDA (-4.5) at Tennessee

The magic pixie dust that turns Gator players into NFL All-Pro players in Neyland Stadium will again lift the Gators to another win in this series. Oh, and Tennessee is TERRRRRRRRIBLE. Florida 31, Tennessee 12.

NEBRASKA (+18) at Michigan

I mean……I know Nebraska’s lost a couple of clunkers at home, but COME ON. Michigan isn’t a world beater by any means, and I think Frost will draw up something to keep this game relatively close. Asking a lot to expect Michigan to cover that much.

VIRGINIA TECH (-27.5) at Old Dominion

The Hokies have been red hot. Ride that momentum against an overmatched opponent, where the talent gap more than bridges that number.

Teaser of the Week (6-point shift)

FLORIDA (+1.5) and the under (54.5)

Tennessee’s offense, whether it’s with Jarrett Guarantano or Keller Chryst, won’t be nearly good enough to post very many yards through the air against the Gator defense. Florida will score enough to win comfortably in what will be an ugly game on the offensive side of the ball for both teams.

Parlay of the week

PENN STATE (-28) at Illinois; OHIO STATE (-37) vs. Tulane; NEBRASKA (+18) at Michigan

Going B1G with this week’s parlay.

So, let’s hear it, Canes fam. Tell me why I’m wrong, and what YOU think is going to happen.