Week Five Lines and Picks

(FULL DISCLAIMER. This article is simply for fun. Chide me, praise me, do whatever. Just know that I’m here to give my two cents and offer a perspective on a game or games that maybe you’re on the fence about. Giving you something to consider that may help you go one way or another. Not forcing you to fork over your money to a sports book. But, of course, if you win, break me off 5%. All lines courtesy of VegasInsider.com)

Last week: 6-2 single games; 0-1 parlays; 0-1 teasers

Overall single games: 23-14

Lockity Lock Hits: 4-0

Overall parlays: 1-3

Overall teasers: 2-2

Now that’s more like it. Last week was a bounce back 6-2 week in single game picks, with Penn State, Stanford, and Wisconsin closing their respective games emphatically to cover their respective numbers. On with this week’s picks…..

Lockity Lock of the Week:

UNC (+18) at Miami

Look, I know. Never bet against your team. And don’t kill me for this, please, as I believe the Canes will win tonight. Yes, I know East Carolina punched the Heels’ lights out. But this series has been tight recently. The past 5 years has had a few very competitive matchups. Plus, the Tar Heels get 7 players back for this game. I honestly hope I’m wrong, Miami wins 45-20, and I fall to 4-1 with my Lockity Locks for the year. I just think it’s asking an awful lot out of the Canes here.

Other lines I like:

OHIO STATE (-3.5) at Penn State

Ohio State is coming together. Penn State has been far too inconsistent and streaky this year.

Tennessee at GEORGIA (-31)

This is a lot of points against a team with the reputation of Tennessee. However, this is a bad team even by Tennessee’s own subpar standards. 31 points won’t be enough to account for UGA’s sheer superiority in the trenches, in the backfield, and under center.

(Underdog pick) STANFORD (+5.5) at Notre Dame

That’s a lot of points to give a team as talented and well coached as Stanford. Sure, the Irish fans might be feeling good about Ian Book after last week, but that was against a poor Wake Forest defense. The real test is this week. I’ll take the value play here and take the points.

OREGON (-2) at Cal

Oregon just got their guts ripped out and fed to them against Stanford last weekend. I can’t imagine many more soul-sucking losses. Cal is undefeated, having won impressively a few weeks ago at BYU, and is coming off a bye. And…Oregon still has the best player on the field in Justin Herbert and a hex over the Bears, having won 8 of the last 9. Ducks bounce back in Berkeley.

Pitt at UCF (-13)

UCF will be chomping at the bit to put a power 5 team in its place. They’ll do it by at least 2 touchdowns.

SYRACUSE (+25.5) at Clemson

The Tigers will be looking for revenge against the Cuse, and they’ll get it……………but not by 26 or more points. Take the Cuse and the points.

SOUTH CAROLINA (Pick) at Kentucky

The Gamecocks flexed their muscles last week against Vandy. Kentucky is riding high after topping Florida and Mississippi State in convincing fashion. Call this one a gut feeling, but Jake Bentley leads a late game-winning drive and the Gamecock defense preserves the win.

Teaser of the Week (6-point shift)

UCF (-7) and UNC (+24)

I’m starting to buy stock in UCF, and the Tar Heels will keep the Canes within a reasonable range on Thursday. Why not increase the margin further on both…..

Parlay of the week

UNC (+18) at Miami; Pitt at UCF (-13); OHIO STATE (-3.5) at Penn State

I’m thinking about Stanford +5.5 in here somewhere, but I think UCF rolling over Pitt is more likely.

So, let’s hear it, Canes fam. Tell me why I’m wrong, and what YOU think is going to happen.