Vaya con Dio, September. A crappy 4-6 record was a microcosm of a September to forget (23-26-1), going 0-fer on single bets, offset for a 4-1 record on teasers and parlay. I always think the first couple of weeks – if not the first month – of the season are hard to gauge because we are still figuring out who is what. I’m liking what I’m seeing from Auburn – an ATM this season – and Oklahoma, so rolling with both this week to start off October with a bang.
On with the picks.
Lock of the week
VIRGINIA TECH +14 at Miami
Until Miami figures out how to move the chains better than literally any other D-1 team, they have no business being favored by double digits over any power 5 team. This feels like 2018 FSU, and I’ll believe a blowout when it when I see.
Other lines I like
UNC -11 at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is one of the worst P5 teams I’ve seen in a very long time. UNC is light years better, as they’ve proved every week except against App State.
Pitt at DUKE -4
Duke is playing as well as anyone right now, and Pitt is an enigma. I’ll go with the more sure thing.
AUBURN -2.5 at Florida
With the hook and a really good defense, I think Auburn gets it done Saturday afternoon.
OKLAHOMA -33 at Kansas
Thought about this for lock of the week. Oklahoma is playoff-good, and with a respectable defense by all accounts. Could be a halftime cover.
Teasers I like
UGA -18 at Tennessee; Vandy at OLE MISS (pick)
IOWA +11 at Michigan; USF -4 at UConn
Memphis at LA-MONROE +22; Tulsa at SMU -6
Oregon State at UCLA (+1); BOISE STATE -16.5 at Unlv
Parlay of the week
Going with the 6-bet moneyline parlay, all big favorites, which pays out around -105 or so....
Cal at OREGON
Mich St at OHIO STATE
TEXAS at West Virginia
Troy at MISSOURI
MARYLAND at Rutgers
WASHINGTON at Stanford