A 7-3 record last week gave us a winning mark in 3 of the last 4 weeks, putting us at a total of 52-56-2 through 11 weeks. Had I not been fickle-minded about the Canes winning a close one, it might’ve been even better. I’ll eventually learn, but it’s hard to not flinch in the face of moderate success when you’ve been getting kicked in the groin for 15+ years. Louisville wasn’t the dogfight I imagined, so credit to this Canes team. Maybe this will be a new Miami after all.
This week has the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry in Georgia-Auburn, along with some CFP intrigue in Minny-Iowa and OU-Baylor. On with Week 12…
Lock of the week
South Carolina at TEXAS A&M -11.5. The wheels have completely come off the Muschamp wagon, following ugly losses to Tennessee and App State. That UGA upset feels like years ago. A&M rolls.
Other lines I like
Oklahoma at BAYLOR +10.5. Look, I think OU is the better team and will win, but how do you force them to lay double digits on the road here? I’ll take home field and the points.
Minnesota at IOWA -3. Staying with the zero respect for the power 5 undefeateds, Minny is getting points at Iowa. I should jump all over that, but Vegas and the CFP committee know something – that the boat won’t get rowed for much longer. Minny’s run ends this week.
Arizona at OREGON -27. Maybe too much, but Oregon is red hot and has everything to play for, CFP included. The Kevin Sumlin experiment has fizzled out in Tuscon.
Georgia at Auburn, OVER 40.5. This is a tough one to call, but Georgia got over this mark against the Gators, and this one will have a few more fireworks than some might think.
ALABAMA -18.5 at Mississippi State. Alabama’s death march to the Iron Bowl marches through Starkeville, where the Tide will destroy a hapless Bulldog squad.
Navy at NOTRE DAME -7. The Irish showed last week what they can do against inferior talent when they’re rolling. They pull away and win by double digits.
WAKE FOREST +34 at Clemson. 5 touchdowns? Really? Ok, I’ll take them.
INDIANA +15 at Penn State. Indiana isn’t ranked by accident. They’re good, and Penn State is coming off a deflating loss. I think IU at least gives PSU push into the 4th quarter, so getting over 2 touchdowns seems like a lot.
Parlay of the week (moneyline bets; pays out around -110)
BAMA at Miss St
Michigan St at MICHIGAN
Utep at UAB
LSU at Ole Miss
South Carolina at TEXAS A&M
Ucla at UTAH