And we’re back in the black for the season! An 8-2 week, featuring by solid performances by Indiana and Notre Dame and close shaves by Iowa and Oregon, helped lift the season mark to 60-58-2 through 12 weeks, bringing us back above the Mendoza line for this first time since the first few weeks of the season.
Now that the year has played itself out this far, it’s always interesting to me to go back and look at which teams have succeeded the most against the number. The Hoosiers (who are somehow getting 10 this week at home) are 7-3 against the spread on the year, one game below the top teams of Louisiana Lafayette, Ohio State, and Oklahoma State (all at 8-2). I’m also looking at San Jose State, Oregon, and Miami this week, all of whom are 6-4 or better against the spread this year, and all with lines that stick out as very reasonable this week.
On with Week 13…
Lock of the week
FIU at MIAMI -21. I figured this would be in the high 20s. 21? Easy to get down on. Canes are hot and keep the good times rolling with a cover here.
Other lines I like
Michigan at INDIANA +10. IU made us look good last week, giving Penn State all they could handle on the road in an easy over. With Ohio State looming next week, asking Michigan to lay 10 on the road to an improved Hoosiers seems steep, even with U of M playing better lately.
Pitt at VIRGINIA TECH -4. Tech is rolling, the game is in Blacksburg, and it feels like a 24-17 type game. Fuente’s team continues its resurgence.
TEXAS +5.5 at Baylor. I have no reason to put any faith in Texas. I just think Baylor is going to come out shell shocked after the OU collapse last week, even though they’ll probably get another shot at the Sooners.
LSU at Arkansas; UNDER 69. LSU will pull their starters third quarter, and it’ll be a sludgy, ugly game the last quarter or so.
PENN STATE +19.5 at Ohio State. Buckeyes win, but laying almost 3 touchdowns against a potential CFP team?! Give me the points.
Oregon at ARIZONA STATE +14. Everyone is telling Oregon what a great story they are and that they should be in the CFP. This will be a wake up call. The Sun Devil defense will test them, but the Ducks win a close, relatively low scoring game.
Tennessee at Missouri; UNDER 45.5. Missouri has been a different team at home, in a good way, and will keep Tennessee’s downfield passing game in check. Likewise, Tennessee’s improved defense will keep a recently stagnant Tiger offense in check. A slow-paced, ugly game.
SAN JOSE STATE -7 at Unlv. San Jose State has been decent on the road, and they’ll win by double digits at the UMass of the west – the Running Rebs of Nevada-Las Vegas.
Parlay of the week (moneyline bets; pays out around -110)
Liberty at VIRGINIA
MICH ST at Rutgers
MINNESOTA at Northwestern
Penn State at OHIO STATE
Boston College at NOTRE DAME
Texas A&M at GEORGIA
Purdue at WISCONSIN