Our former SB National resident robot/new ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly came up with S&P+, now SP+, at Football Outsiders years ago. Long story short: it’s an advanced stat metric that is predictive of team success based on a variety of factors. If you’d like the full chapter and verse about SP+ from robot Bill himself, click here and learn more.
SP+ rates teams on offense, defense, and special teams, and predicts the outcomes for games based upon those ratings. Some enterprising souls over at reddit have made beautiful win probability charts for every CFB team based up SP+’s projections.
So, with that knowledge at hand and in mind, let’s take a look at the win prob chart for MIami’s final 3 games of the 2019 season.
The probabilities through 10 weeks are set because, well, those games have been played. Those weren’t the probabilities entering the year, but that’s what happened so that’s what’s on the chart.
Now, for Miami moving forward, there is plenty to like. According to SP+, the Canes have a 74.7% chance of beating Louisville to get to 6 wins, then a 60.7% chance to beat FIU to get to 7 wins (based upon the percent chance to beat Louisville this week so that game gets us to 7 wins), and a 41% chance to beat Duke to get to 8 wins. Again, those percentages are cumulative, so don’t look at the 41% chance to beat Duke as what SP+ predicts for that game.
There is a stronger chance for Miami to end with 7 wins (43.1%) than 8 (41.0%) according to SP+. But, the game with the largest percent chance to lose, again according to SP+, is this week’s game against Louisville, at 25.3%. But, as we know, SP+ was very, very favorable to Miami earlier in the year and the Canes found ways to lose anyway, so don’t take this as the gospel, just as a part of the conversation.
Entering the year, SP+ gave Miami an 87% chance to beat Louisville, an 84% chance to beat FIU, and a 69 (nice)% chance to beat Duke. Those numbers have fallen off slightly, what with Miami’s early struggles and some of the preseason projections being phased out of the SP+ system at this point of the year. But, it is still entirely possible that Miami runs the table and beats all 3 of their remaining opponents.
At 5-4 (3-3 ACC), Miami is in a better place than they were 2 weeks ago, but still have plenty of work to do ahead of them. And, if SP+ is to be believed, there’s a good chance Miami ends up with 7 or 8 regular season wins. Here’s hoping for 8 and the best bowl possible for Manny Diaz’s crew in his first year at the helm.