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Week 11 College Football Lines and Picks

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LSU-Bama, Penn State-Minnesota, and a whole lotta not much...

NCAA Football: Miami at Florida State Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

A 6-4 record last week gave us a winning mark in 2 of the last 3 weeks. I thought about getting this article in early yesterday to get a UCF-Washington tease in, but, HOOOOO buddy, I’m glad I didn’t. (UCF fans, if you can’t deal with a piddly little golden hurricane in central Oklahoma, you don’t want any of this smoke from the real one in Coral Gables. Enjoy the kiddie table.)

This week has the big game of the season in LSU-Bama, which, along with an interesting Penn State-Minnesota tilt, headlines an otherwise mostly bleh slate of games. That said, there are some interesting lines, so let’s take a stab at them.....

Lock of the week

TENNESSEE +1.5 at Kentucky. How the Vols aren’t at least a 5-6 point favorite here is mind boggling to me. Kentucky has no semblance of a passing game with a backup WR at QB, and the Vols have been solid against the run in their resurgence. And yes, UK has beaten UT with a backup WR at QB, but this ain’t 2011, and Derek Dooley isn’t walking through the door. And, well, it’s Kentucky against Tennessee in football. Translation: UT rolls. Book it.

Other lines I like

LOUISVILLE +6.5 at Miami. Don’t get mad. I think Miami wins. I just think it’s a dogfight, with Cameron Price delivering a big kick in the fourth quarter (yes, I actually wrote that.)

ILLINOIS +14.5 at Michigan State. Staying with road dogs might not be smart, but I just don’t see why this line is the way it is, the way both teams have been playing lately. Illinois could win this game outright.

LSU +6 at Bama. Speaking of outright road dog wins, Gary Danielson noted that Tua didn’t look healthy at practice, and Bama will need a capable Tua to keep up with an LSU offense that can finally beat Bama through the air.

SAN JOSE STATE +8 at Hawai’i - The Spartans have won at Arkansas and Army this year, so they’re comfortable on the road. Hawai’i seemingly plays everyone close at home, and this will be no different.

Teasers I like (7-point shift, picks in bold)

FSU at BC, UNDER 70.5; PENN STATE (pick) at Minnesota

USC at ARIZONA STATE +9.5; NOTRE DAME -1 at Duke

Georgia at Mizzou, OVER 41; Tennessee at Kentucky, OVER 35

Stanford at COLORADO +10.5; UConn at CINCY -28

Parlay of the week (bets on the moneyline; even money payout)

East Carolina at SMU

Vandy at FLORIDA

Ga Tech at VIRGINIA

Mizzou at GEORGIA

NOTRE DAME at Duke

Iowa State at OKLAHOMA