WOOF. After a decent week 1, week 2 hit the skids around 4:42 am ET last Saturday, when Cal kicked a last second field goal to stun Washington 20-19, blow the last leg of my parlay, and cap off a 3-7 steaming pile of a week.
Be warned: that’s what you get when you hitch your wagon to too many games. I had Stanford and Washington tied to multiple bets and both teams’ putrid Saturday sank four bets.
As a bright spot, I moved to 1-1 on underdog moneyline bets, as Colorado stormed back from down 17-0 at half to shock Nebraska 34-31 in overtime.
On with the Week 3 madness…
Lockity lock of the week
Florida at KENTUCKY (+9). UNC’s incompetence on Friday makes me feel less good about Miami, which makes me feel less good about Florida. Yeah, I’m reaching, but I think this ends up a close game, so home field plus NINE points seems like a lot of pluses in the Wildcats’ column, especially if good Feleipe Franks doesn’t show up for 4 quarters, which often doesn’t seem to happen.
Other lines I like
Clemson at SYRACUSE (+28): I know, I know. Clemson is the greatest team in the history of teams and are probably annoyed at having to play a game outside of Clemson (or so it feels like they never have to, silly as that feels), but Syracuse is better than the Maryland disaster and I think that line is accounting for that score. Clemson wins comfortable, but a little closer than this.
Florida State at VIRGINIA (-7.5): I mean….have you watched either of these teams play? I’ve watched both. Feels like it should be 10-12 points, at least, so seems like there’s value here.
Air Force at COLORADO (-3.5). Buffs keep the good time rolling at home against a team they should beat by at least a touchdown.
Arkansas State at GEORGIA (-33.5). This feels like, as good as Georgia is – and they’re playoff good – that this should be more. This could be the spread at halftime, as Georgia will pound the Red Wolves into an early and ugly submission.
Teasers I like
Hawai’i at Washington, OVER 52; Stanford at UCF (-2.5). Any game with Hawai’i should break into the 50’s. UCF is showing more each week that they’re for real…..and are becoming a reliable wager.
DUKE (pick) at MTSU; Oklahoma at UCLA, OVER 65. Duke as a pick seems relatively strong, and Oklahoma will score no less than 50 on Saturday, probably well over, so over 65 seems reasonable to expect.
ALABAMA (-18.5) at South Carolina; UNLV at NORTHWESTERN (-11). Tide rolls through Columbia against an undermanned Gamecock squad. UNLV is horrific, and Northwestern should win by at least 17.
Florida at Kentucky, UNDER 54.5; OKLAHOMA STATE (-7.5) at Tulsa. UF-UK feels more like a 24-20 game, with an inconsistent UF offsetting a stingy Gator defense. OK State will pull away in the second half and win by double digits; might as well get the line down under that.
Underdog moneyline pick of the week
The pickings are honestly slim this week, but I like what I see with Georgia State catching 8.5 at Western Michigan this weekend. With a moneyline payout of +260, it might be worth throwing a few bucks if you’re looking for a low risk, high upside upset candidate.
Parlay of the Week
5-bet moneyline parlay (picks in bold). Let’s try this again after last week’s debacle. This pays out right at even money:
OHIO STATE at Indiana
Pittsburgh at PENN STATE
Stanford at UCF
Unlv at NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA STATE at Tulsa