Week 3 was a step back towards mediocrity, as a 6-4 clip put us at 15-15 on the season, not counting underdog moneyline bets. Speaking of, yeah, Georgia State is doing everything possible to infuriate me this year, between beating my undergrad alma mater in Knoxville to absolutely falling on their face against Western Michigan, losing 57-10 last week when I looked at them as an underdog moneyline pick. Vaya con Dios, GSU. Ain’t touching you all again.
On with Week 4…
Lockity Lock of the Week
Michigan at WISCONSIN (-3.5). Michigan was supposed to be the team to step up this year with Urban gone and Shea Patterson leading the way. Well, Patterson has been bad while Wisconsin has been dominant. Game’s in Madison, Badgers by a touchdown.
Other lines I like
WEST VIRGINIA (-5) at Kansas. Both teams woke up in a big way last week, but, yeah….it’s Kansas. Neers by 10.
Oklahoma State at Texas; UNDER 73. I mean, yeah, these teams score, but that’s a HUGE number. There will be a small stretch of this game with a shred of defense.
Ucla at WASHINGTON STATE (-19). Betting against the Bruins is becoming an ATM card. The Chip Kelly experiment is over.
Cal at OLE MISS (-2.5). Cal has already won at Washington, no small feat, but it’s a long road trip and they’re due for a loss. Nothing more than a gut feeling. The hook helped, too.
Teasers I like
Cent. Michigan at MIAMI (-22.5); UCF (-4.5) at Pitt.
Charlotte at CLEMSON (-35); TCU (-1) vs. Smu.
Tennessee at Florida, UNDER 55.5; Miami (OH) at OHIO STATE (-32.5)
WASHINGTON (Pick) at Byu; LOUISVILLE (+13.5) at Florida State
Underdog moneyline pick
Michigan State at NORTHWESTERN (+8; +275). The Wildcats have beaten Sparty the last 3 seasons, including a 29-19 win in East Lansing last year. Almost 3 to 1 payoff if they can get the win.
Parlay of the week
Sticking the high-quantity dose of big favorites. Hit last week, and this one would pay off at around +150.
Tennessee at FLORIDA
UCF at Pitt
Smu at TCU
Ball St at NC STATE
NEBRASKA at Illinois
Ucla at WASHINGTON STATE