Recruiting: How Have the Miami Hurricanes Done in South Florida?

WARNING: This Article has some meat. If you just want the results scroll down to Verdict. Or else enjoy the ride.

Oh Florida.

The Sunshine State.

Home to arguably the most fertile recruiting grounds in the COUNTRY.

Over the last Five recruiting cycles, the state of Florida ranks Number One as the best producer of college talent. behind Florida are the usually suspects, California, Teas and Georgia.

Its no surprise that these four monster hotbeds of talent hold the top spots with Florida as the lead car. The disparity however between Number Four, Georgia, and Number Five, Louisiana, shows just how much more talent Florida produces than everyone else.

Get more granular and you’ll see the dominance of South Florida. A 2018 ESPN article charting the Top 100 recruits from the past 10 years broke down the top talent producing counties. The top county was the Los Angeles County. However, Texas and Florida make up the majority of the list. Texas was represented with three, while Florida placed a whopping SIX counties, making up 50% of the list.

The Top Two Florida Counties?

Broward and Dade. The 954 and the 305.

Broward was Second, producing THIRTY EIGHT top 100 talents from 2008-2018. Miami-Dade wasn’t too far behind at Sixth with 23.

I highlight all this just to state and prove what we ALREADY know, South Florida is the deepest, richest area in the country for college football talent.

Now the second, seemingly obvious question is, how much of that Talent has Miami gotten?

The Answer?

More than everyone else. But, not nearly enough.

Since 2015, Miami has secured 27* (26 without Issiah Walker) commitments from South Florida athletes, nearly double the next teams. Those teams? Surely another obvious answer. Florida with 15 commitments, Florida State with 12, and good Ole’ Alabama with 11. For some arguments that is enough to start and stop a debate that Miami has done well enough to corner the talent in South Florida. As mentioned its nearly double UF. It IS more than double FSU and Alabama. Sheesh, its literally double any two team combination of those teams you can create.

But its not always the quantity of what you have. Its almost assuredly the quality.

South Florida’s Finest

I took some time to create top 20 lists of each recruiting cycle dating back to 2015 using 247Sports composite Rankings. I like these rankings best because it incorporates all the big graders like 247, ESPN and Rivals into one, neat rating. What I found was not surprising but still disappointing.

2015 Recruiting Class

Tarnished Gold

We start with the most bereft grouping on the list with the 2015 Florida Class. In what would be Al Golden’s last class, it had become clear to local recruits that what Golden and crew were selling wasn’t worth the trouble. Though preceded by a strong 14’ class headed by Miami’s last 5 star, defensive recruit Chad Thomas, the 2015 incoming class’ most recent advertisement was a 6-7 season. Unlike what we recently saw in Manny Diaz’s first season as Head Coach, the 2014 season was Al Golden’s 4th, a glaring indicator that even with solid recruiting the coaching was not up to par for recruits to believe. The 2015 class fell, per 247sports, from 12th in 14’ to 27th in 2015.

The Good? Each player from FL in the class would be drafted, two of which, Mark Walton and JaQuan Johnson, were featured in the South Florida Top 20. However, as Miami fell, teams like WVU and Maryland were able to take players Miami can usually have, while the big three of Bama, UF and FSU accounted for 7 commits including 4 of the top 6 and, the jewel of the class, Calvin Ridley. By far the worst showing in SoFL, UM only secured two players in the top 20.

2016 Recruiting Class

Out with the Gold(en), in with the New

The year of 58-0 saw a changing of the guard, while refreshing to any maligned fanbase, is a death knell to most recruiting classes. Surprisingly, the entry of SEC power Mark Richt was able to mitigate the transition class, holding on to 9 top 50 FL players, including 5 from South Florida’s top 20. Most potent in the charge was Ron Dugan’s WR recruiting, grabbing the 4th, 7th and 13th best players from the three counties in Same Bruce, Ahmmon Richards and Dionte Mullins. Thomas Brown started quick as well scoring the number two back in the state and 11th player down south with Travis Homer. Manny Diaz secured at the time was hoped to be the new Bermuda Triangle in Shaquille Quarteman, Zach McCloud and Michael Pinckney, though none hailed from the State of Miami.

Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

However just as 2015, the top of the SoFL Class went elsewhere as Ohio State grabbed its perennial stud from South Florida in Nick Bosa, adding Benjimin Victor behind him as a cherry on top. Aside from this poaching it was an odd year for outside colleges and a strangely strong transition year for UM. FSU, UF and ALA only accounted for 3 State of Miami commits, with Bama getting shutout. Meanwhile, Miami recruited a solid 5.

2017 Recruiting Class

Reclaiming the State of Miami

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

During Coach Richt’s tenure in Miami he was quoted often as saying the best way to win at Miami is to rope of the counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami. The proclaimed “State of Miami”, home to the countries greatest college football resources was now Richt’s backyard. It was this season of recruiting that felt as though a comeback was coming and an upward trend was forming. Though Miami is often mention in the top 5s, 10s and 20s of south Florida athletes, this was the year it felt true. Miami would finish again with the most recruits from both the FL top 50 and the SoFL top 20, seven and eight respectively, while holding on to the end with Jerry Juedy, Tedarrell Slaton, CJ Henderson and a few other SoFL athletes. However, the return of ALA, UF and FSU to the ranks would net Alabama Juedy, holding a trend of wideouts to Alabama, and Henderson with Slaton to UF.

At this point a slight trend on the staff was emerging, as Stacy Searels showed his worth on the trail while the majority of the defensive staff struggling to gain much traction with majors players surrounding Palm Beach, Broward and Dade.

2018 Recruiting Class

Fame, Chains and College Gameday

The most successful recruiting year of Mark Richts tenure at Miami may also be the most talented Miami has had since Randy Shannon’s Miami Northwestern led class of 2009. After securing Miami’s first and only bowl win since 2006, a beat down of former Big East West Virginia Mountaineers, the Hurricanes found themselves winning on the trail early and often throughout the 2017 class. With the introduction of the Turnover Chain, a ten game win streak and College Gameday hosted in a November, Miami was in excellent position to nail the class of 2018. Securing 9 of the states top 50 and 7 of SoFL top 15, Miami looked to be back.

Though as most of the staff earned its money in Florida and South Florida, the expectations set by the hype were never met after Miami followed their wining streak with a 3 game losing streak to end the season. While Miami did well locally, they missed out yet again on the top three talents of the class, stinging not only because of the perfect storm for recruiting efforts, but because the former coach of the players, and possible future position coach in Mike Rumph, now was with Miami. Even as the 2018 class constitutes much of the starting 22 now, it will always be thought of more for the “what ifs” it presented.

2019 Recruiting Class

A Return to the Shallows

While expectations drowned out what was a promising 2018 recruiting class, they completely demolished 2019’s season and recruiting class. After a year that most pundit thought laid the momentum Miami needed to vault into the recruiting worlds top 5, a stalled offense and questionable coaching decision derailed all hopes of a return to greatness. A lucky offense in 2018 that was so fortunate, in 2019, showed its wears to prospective recruits. They completely ran off all QB recruits, and most south Florida offensive talent. The only year Miami missed out on a top 20 SoFL offensive talent was 2019, missing on all 7 players. The defensive struggles recruiting continued as well. As cornerback recruiting continued to hit new lows, inconsistency at DL, with its third coach in 3 years, began to takes its toll as only 3 SoFL talents ended up signing with Miami.

Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The one consistency in Florida recruiting? Miami had taken, up to this point, a top flight safety prospect from the South Florida area, led by Ephraim Banda. Another year passes as the top player leaves for SEC territory while 8 more players bolts for one of Bama, UF and FSU.

2020 Recruiting Class

A League of Their Own

Some may view this class a master class in relationships and recruiting, others may deem it a miracle. What is it, when compared to the other classes?

A Mind-boggling Outlier.

No winning. New offensive staff. Embarrassing losses left and right. Enough excuses for most recruits to use and carry on elsewhere. But somehow the staff pulled off a top 15 class. However, digging deeper, consistencies can be found. Top running backs, a staple of most Miami classes. A top safety prospect. A bundle of cornerbacks. A bundle of athletes on the defensive line. A declining recruiting opponent in Florida State. After pulling 4 top recruits from The State of Miami in 2015, FSU hasn’t pulled more than 2 in any class since, only totaling 7 since 2015.

Though this class has met nearly none of the requisite environmental markers to support a good class, that’s just what it was, a strong class in the face of strong uncertainties.

Verdict

Overall Miami has gotten 26 of the top 120 players from South Florida since 2015. Thats 22% from the Cream of the Crop.

A deeper look shows that Miami is still getting 20% of the top 60, snagging 12 in the same time frame, and 5 (20%) of the top 30.

The tipping point issues Miami is facing in recruiting are:

• Miami isn’t getting ANY of the program changing talent in the top 3 players each year from South Florida. Not one in ANY of the 6 classes discussed here. No Jerry Juedy’s, no Partrick Surtain II’s, no Tyrique Stevenson’s. And the list goes on and on.
• Miami’s recruiting is LARGELY dependent on winning. Following an 8 win or less season, occurring 4 times, Miami has only secured 7 of the top EIGHTY South Florida Recruits, for a paultry .09% commit rate.
• But when Miami Wins? Following 9 win or more seasons, Miami has cleaned UP, snagging FIFTEEN of 40 possible South Florida recruits, a staggering 38% clip.
• A consistent Miami team that could stay above 9 wins would quickly eclipse 60%, possible 70% blue chip ratios in 2-3 years and start cracking those Top 3 player lists each year.

This University of Miami regime has only allowed itself to rely, mostly on its proximity and history. Those two items are the main consistencies in the better classes Miami has seen. Exclusive and consistent access to the best talent in America has allowed Miami abnormal ability to piece together good classes even with adverse environments. Based on its most recent history, recruiting on the team has been the most consistent at RB, S and WR and the most underwhelming, aside from a few outliers, at QB and LB. The biggest obstacle Miami has in recruiting isn’t primarily big schools coming in and taking big fish players. The biggest obstacle to Miami’s recruiting is its inability to promote a consistent ability to win. For two years Miami won at great levels for ACC competition. Had it stayed in that trajectory the 19’ class very well may have been special. Miami needs more than just the 2020 season to go well, but 2021 and 2022 as well in order to start eating at the big table.

As it stands Miami recruits with a large net and hopes for players to fall in. Which works due to location. If they want to order any player they want from the South Florida menu, they’ll have to show they can be great for more than one season at a time.