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Film Preview: Miami at Florida State, 11/13

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The red hot ‘Canes head north to Tally to face the struggling ‘Noles.

FSU v Clemson Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

The Miami Hurricanes head north to face their rival the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday, November 13th at 3:30pm on ESPN. The 5-4 Hurricanes (3-2 in ACC) are on a three game winning streak while the Seminoles 3-6 (2-4 in ACC) are on a two game losing streak.

The Canyonero keys to victory for The U from the summer are:

1- Catch the ball. This has been massively improved with Rambo, Smith and Harley in the game. Mallory has still had drops and fumbles but having Arroyo to push him has been a good thing. Also, Van Dyke throws a really catchable football compared to past QB’s.

2- Establish a pass rush. Against weak O-Lines like Georgia Tech that wasn’t an issue. FSU’s O-Line is as bad as GT’s and Miami should get a pass rush without having to bring too much extra pressure which creates those holes in the flats and intermediate middle of the D.

3- Stay focused. I would hope this wouldn’t be an issue against FSU in Tally, but, maybe it will be. Miami continues to get up big and let teams crawl back in.


The Doppler

According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric, the ‘Canes are the 28th ranked team in FBS. Miami is also ranked 13th on offense, 43rd on defense, and 48th in the kicking game. The Seminoles are 48th overall, 50th on offense, 53rd on defense, and 26th in kicking.

FSU v Clemson Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

FSU has scored 28.1 points per game (71st in FBS) and has allowed 27 PPG (71st in FBS). Miami on the other hand has scored 32.9 PPG (32nd in FBS) and allowed 30.4 PPG (97th in FBS).

FSU is 83rd in the nation on 3rd down offense against Miami’s 3rd down defense which is 91st- so it’s a wash of bad performance. Miami’s 3rd down offense is 57th while FSU’s defense is 69th, another wash but of average performances.

Penalties- FSU is 53rd in FBS with 5.89 per game while Miami is 95th with seven per game. The ‘Canes have started improving in that category as of late, however.


FSU offense

FSU matches up well with Miami in some regards. The ‘Noles have a couple of explosive receivers, a power back in Corbin and a mobile QB when Jordan Travis is in the game. Travis averages 7.7 yards per pass attempt and has tossed 11 TD’s with five interceptions. He’s also ran for 340 yards, four TD’s and completed 63% of his passes.

Jashaun Corbin has bolstered FSU’s run game with 747 yards on 6.9 yards per carry. Corbin has seven TD’s from scrimmage. Treshaun Ward has averaged 6.9 yards per carry, as well, with three rushing TD’s. Miami could be in for a scrappy game from FSU that’s won on the ground in an effort to roll out a UNC type of performance against the ‘Canes.

Head coach Mike Norvell’s offense has five receivers with 15 or more yards per catch this season. The most dangerous threat will be Andrew Parchment and his 16.5 ypc and two scores. 11 different ‘Noles have caught a TD in 2021.

Above- This FSU offense doesn’t excel in obvious passing situations. The snap is low, the line blows the protection and the throw is one every QB is told never to try- it’s deep and late over the middle.

Above- This is the kind of squiggly doo crap that beats undisciplined teams. Rush the inside hip? Then lose the scramble drill and get beat for a TD that puts a bad team back in a game they shouldn’t be in.

Above- I was really surprised Kenny Pickett and Jeff Sims didn’t run more against Miami. Sims tried at times, but not really on designed pass run options (swing draw and stick draw) like I expected. Pickett didn’t look like he wanted to run at all. Sam Howell ran and beat Miami with his legs.

Above- This is your 4th and 4 play? NCSU just mugged them up and the LB played aggressive football. Avantae Williams proved aggressive works in coverage vs. Sims.


FSU defense

FSU edge rusher Jermaine Johnson has 10.5 TFL’s and 7.5 sacks this season. He’s joined by Keir Thomas as FSU’s leading big men. Thomas has nine TFL’s and four sacks in ‘21. The ‘Noles leading tackler is Jammie Robinson with 64 tackles, and has two interceptions and three PBU’s. Robinson and Travis Jay will try to slow down Miami’s passing game.

Above- NCSU goes at FSU with a play-action pass and a deep ball involved. This is where Van Dyke excels and you can expect Harley and Rambo to be targets for these big plays.

Above- Where are the wheel routes to Knighton in this offense? We need to see more of that, especially versus a weak back seven. If protection holds up it’s a money play.

Above- Sneaking the TE out on a pop pass off of play-action in the red zone. I love it. Hope Miami uses this, too, with Arroyo. Helps with Knighton running well to use it off outside zone. Get the defenders eyes wide to the sideline before drilling it back middle.

Above- NCSU has already proven to Van Dyke and Lashlee that the NCAA Offense works vs FSU’s defense. Stick to what works and the naked split zone boot with the slide concept works.


Prediction

Per ESPN, Miami has a 61.9% chance to win the ball game compared to FSU’s 38.1%. In the summer I predicted Miami as a 14 point win over FSU. I still think Miami should win by two scores against the struggling ‘Noles. I thought Miami would be a 10-2 regular season ball club with losses only to Alabama and North Carolina.

Above- Patke, please don’t let this happen. This is how bad teams get back into ball games, just like fumbling three times or a blocked punt or a 2 point pass returned for a score.

If the ‘Canes can get a pass rush, don’t let up after getting ahead, and secure the football- I think this is an easy but not too easy win for Manny Diaz’s Hurricanes. Diaz is 2-0 as a head coach against his alma mater and should move to 3-0 after the weekend.

Prediction: Miami by 10.