Itttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt’s Monday! Which means it’s time to grab a spear, dive overboard, and hunt for some orange and green schools of thought swimming through my head...
1) Not to pat myself on the back (absolutely patting myself on the back right now), but I went 6-1 against the spread in my picks article last week. 40-29-1 on the season now. The sole loss last week? Miami -10. Sigh...thanks, fellas. Still, it was a huge week to start moving back in the right direction after a few difficult weeks.
2) But seriously, it was nice to see a Canes win. I won’t take those for granted any more. Miami really did not particularly play cleanly (to put it mildly) and still found enough explosive plays to find a way to win. The defense, which started off in a very suspect fashion, came together in the second half, allowing just one touchdown.
3) What else is there to say about Tyler Van Dyke and Charleston Rambo? That connection is hotter than the sun right now. I can’t remember the last UM wide receiver that I would put in the class of 2021 Rambo. Phillip Dorsett in 2012-2013, perhaps? In any event, Rambo is on pace to challenge some all-time UM records, including Leonard Hankerson’s single-season record of 72 catches in 2010 and Allen Hurns’ single-season record of 1162 receiving yards in 2013. Lofty stuff.
4) TVD-to-Rambo will be a problem for an FSU defense that struggles to stop the pass. They’re 72nd in total passing yards per game, and from what we’ve seen from this Miami offense the past month, they will be hard-pressed to slow this passing attack now. They will have to blitz Van Dyke and make him uncomfortable. I have a feeling RPO slants could be Miami’s friend this weekend. Quick routes, balls in space, catch and run opportunities. Then, when they start getting more aggressive to stop the shorter routes, burn them deep.
5) Miami’s defense will have to be much more fundamentally sound this week. FSU’s offensive line is not good - Clemson and NC State’s defenses shut down the Noles running game the last 2 weeks and limited them to less than 2 yards per carry - so if Miami can stop shooting itself in the foot with assignment/gap errors, they have the horses to put FSU in third and long situations routinely.
6) The Canes are only a 2.5-point favorite as I write this. I’m really surprised that number isn’t at least UM -7. Yes, Miami hasn’t seen a blowout game that it doesn’t want to turn into a nailbiter, but FSU is outmanned here and matches up poorly with UM. For the reasons I stated, I see UM winning this by double digits. Canes 33-22.