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Week 4 College Football Lines and Picks

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NCAA Football: Michigan State at Miami Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Three full weeks of games and three weeks with winning overall records. I hit a 4-3 mark last week, thanks, unfortunately, to the Spartans covering +6.5 and the game going under 57. The final game on the slate, Stanford at Vandy, was a comfortable cover, with the Cardinal having a sizable lead for most of the second half. Through three weeks, my overall record is 13-7-1 (65%).

Can I make it 4 straight weeks in the black to start the season? Let’s check out the games and picks (all lines per Bovada)...

LSU (-2.5) at Mississippi State. The Tigers impressed last week against Central Michigan - at least against what Vegas thought they’d do. Miss State is coming off a disappointing loss at Memphis. The Bulldogs won’t bounce back against a superior LSU bunch. A field goal difference gets this done, and I think the winning margin will be more than that, so I’ll lay the 2.5 and take the Tigers.

Colorado State at Iowa (-23.5). Colorado State is BAAAAAAD. Lose-at-home-to-Vanderbilt-type of bad. How this line isn’t 30+, I don’t know. I’ll take the Hawkeyes and lay those points easily.

Louisville at Florida State; OVER 60.5. I could somehow see Louisville dropping a stinker on the road (although I’d pick the Cards straight up if you put me on the spot), but what I really see is a ton of points being scored between the teams. I’ll say they reach this mark in what could be a shootout.

Rutgers (+20.5) at Michigan. Ok, Rutgers. You have my attention. You’ve been steamrolling poor teams, but now you get what appears to be a competent bunch of Wolverines. I’ll say you hang in respectable range until the end and cover the spread by a hair.

Tennessee at Florida (-18.5). I don’t think Florida comes out flat after last week’s close loss to the Tide. They come to play and do what they always do - destroy an outmanned Tennessee squad. The Vols can’t hit a chunk play in the passing game from Joe Milton to save their lives, and that’s something they’ll have to do to stay competitive against the Gators.

UNC at Georgia Tech; OVER 63.5. UNC absolutely lit up a capable Virginia team last week, but defensively they also bled out 39 points to the Hoos’ offense. Georgia Tech gets credit for holding Clemson down last week, but the script flips this week against UNC’s explosive offense and exploitable defense.

Georgia (-35.5) at Vandy. The Dawgs’ defense might score enough to halfway cover this line by itself. They should absolutely feast on Saturday and set up short fields for the offense.