Assume that a perennial 6 - 6 football team is right in the middle - equal or better than 1/2, but only 1 game away from being in the bottom 84%.
Good news: two more wins puts you in the top 84% of all teams (some bragging rights).
See the color chart below - 68% of all teams are in the double middle yellow areas. Where are we?
0 and 1 loss teams would be in the far right blue area ( far less than 1%);
1 – 2 loss teams fall into the dark tan area (less than 2.5%(;
2 – 4 loss teams belong in the light tan area (13.5%);
4 – 6 loss teams belong in the right side yellow area (34%).
Alabama belongs in the far right group – in a bad year, they can move into the dark tan area
Miami probably belongs anywhere in the yellow area close to the light tan area.
There’s about a 15% chance a lesser color team can defeat a next color higher team.
Any team can regularly defeat any other team in the same color bracket. – next higher bracket teams will defeat lesser bracket teams at least 85% of the time.
There are two yellow brackets comprising 68% of teams in the USA (34% on either side of the 50/50 middle line).
This means that 84% (50% plus 34%) of the teams in America can defeat Miami without it being considered a shock.
Yearly Losses under Shannon: 7,6,4,6
Yearly Losses under Golden: 6,5,4,7,5
Yearly Losses under Richt: 4,3,6
Yearly Losses under Diaz: 7,3
Note: there has not been a 2, 1, or 0 loss season since Larry Coker, and only two 3 loss seasons for the past 15 years.
Since Coker, Miami has been a 5, 6, and 7 loss team.
Although the fans won’t like it, an 8 – 4 season in 2021 would be among the best for the past 15 years, especially with Alabama, Clemson and FSU on the schedule!
At the present time, Miami is an established Yellow team - but - we've got two 3 loss seasons and one 4 loss season in the past 5 years. We are currently trending towards the Light Tan.
Coach Diaz needs 2 more full seasons to fairly rank him and his teams. Can he break us out of the Yellow?
Edster says "Watch!" - the breakout starts against App State!