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The Miami Hurricanes will host the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Hard Rock Stadium on September 11th at 7pm (eastern). The game will be broadcast on ESPNU. Miami looks to bounce back from an expected but embarrassing loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, while ASU rides a 1-0 record after beating ECU 33-19 in Boone, NC.
The data
The Hurricanes are ranked 25th overall by the SP+, including a ranking of 30th on offense and 34th on defense. App State is ranked 42nd overall by the SP+, including a ranking of 52nd on offense and 35th on defense. Miami is around a seven point favorite to beat the Mountaineers per Vegas. ESPN gives Miami a 74% chance of victory over ASU. The ‘Canes have lost three in a row while App State has won three in a row.
ASU offense
App will rely on QB Chase Brice on offense. Brice looked good but not great at Clemson before looking dismal at Duke. Brice threw 15 interceptions in ‘20 for a Blue Devils squad that has completely fallen off over the past two seasons.
Bryce finished off the ECU game with 9.6 yards per attempt and two TD’s but threw an interception. ASU ran for 226 yards on 6.3 yards per carry and two TD’s against ECU.
Above- This is the Brice we saw at Duke. The one that misses on easy 1st down throws because there’s the slightest hint of pressure from the defensive line.
Above- And then you can see the arm talent that got Brice into the Elite 11. He drops an absolute dime for a TD here.
Above- Multiple TE’s in the game and App is running a simple outside zone play here. ECU can’t shed a block and they don’t rotate down into the stove pipe left by the blocking scheme. It’s a rather easy run for RB Camerun Peoples. Miami linebackers have to prove they can finish- ie. shed blocks, and tackle.
Above- UNC’s OC Phil Longo also likes a speed out as a quick throw against teams playing off coverage. It’s a simple way to pick up yardage and here with the missed tackles goes for a TD. Miami has to clean up the DB communication and signaling so the DB’s aren’t turned around at the snap.
ASU defense
App State has traditionally brought pressure regardless of what defense they’ve been in. They’ve bounced between a 3-4 and 4-2 defense in the past. ASU will be in an odd front in 2021.
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Above- You can see the Mountaineers with six on the line of scrimmage. The DB’s to the trips are playing 10 yards off with the linebacker at 5 yards off the inside threat. The safety is midfield at 16-17 yards, and the single WR side cornerback is in press man.
Will ASU test the Miami WR’s and make them prove they can get off of bump, press man? I think they might try early on. Which Miami WR has proven to be a go-to threat at all let alone against press man?
Above- ECU with an RPO and ASU makes the receiver pay for the catch. Legal, big hits could rattle the Miami receivers that have already lacked confidence in the past.
Above- ECU’s WR at the top of the screen mistakes the call and the ‘double screen’ swing to his side still goes for a huge gain. Miami needs to get Don Chaney involved in the screen game.
Prediction
Week One overreactions are always a trip. You just have to stop and laugh. Miami isn’t horrible, they just got their butts kicked by the best dynasty and coach in college football history. Every sane person thought Alabama would beat Miami, it was just to the extent of the butt whooping, and yes, it was bad.
App State just toyed around with a really bad ECU team. Miami will beat ASU at home in a night game. If App beats Miami I will... I dunno... you decide my fate? There isn’t a clear-cut loss left on the ‘Canes schedule.
Prediction: Miami by 14