A 5-3 mark for week 5 has me back in the black again at 20-18-2. I was dead wrong on Arkansas. I thought they’d have a lot more for Alabama, especially on defense. Giant nope. Also a big whiff for Washington showing up in the Rose Bowl. But otherwise, it was a good week. Betting against Colorado has been free money this year. Might keep doing it when they hit the field again next week.
On with Week 6 picks...
Tennessee at LSU (+3)
Maybe this is just the wounded Vol fan in me, but this is a game that Tennessee loses in the last 2 decades. In an eerily similar scenario, they ascended to the Top 10 in 2016 and lost in OT at Texas A&M the week before (I believe) they played Alabama. This has that same kind of feel, and while I think THIS Tennessee team can win on Saturday (I think it’s basically a coin flip game, especially if Cedric Tillman doesn’t play, which it seems like he won’t), I like getting a few points, so I’ll go with the home team Tigers getting those points here.
Texas vs. OKLAHOMA (+9)
OU is hot dog water this year, but this is a rivalry game between two teams that, talent-wise, aren’t double-digit points apart from each other. I’m also not sold on Texas just because they almost beat Bama. I’ll take 9 points in this one.
Missouri at FLORIDA (-10.5)
I think Florida kind of woke up against Tennessee offensively, even though they lost. Missouri has been scrappy against Auburn and Georgia, but this is where they come back down to earth. Florida rolls in the Swamp.
OLE MISS (-17) at Vandy
Only 17? I don’t know what Vegas is seeing here, as this has 48-17 written all over it. The Rebels cover this number easily.
NORTH CAROLINA (+3.5) at Miami
I already explained this in my Monday Musings article, which you can read here. The wrong team is favored, so I’ll take UNC with points here in a heartbeat.
AUBURN (+29.5) at Georgia
Yo, Vegas. Y’all been watching Georgia the last 2 weeks? They had a 4-quarter fight with Kent State and edged Missouri. How that earns a 30-point buffer over a rival like Auburn - who also won a nailbiter over Missouri and lost a close game to LSU - just doesn’t fit here. If both trends carry to this weekend, this should be well inside a 30-point margin. It might not, but I’ll take that trend until there’s reason not to.
UTAH (-3.5) at UCLA
Apparently I’m going to force UCLA to show me they’re a really good team, because I still don’t believe it. Handle Utah and Washington in back-to-back weeks, and I’ll jump on the bandwagon.
WASHINGTON STATE (+13) at USC
The Trojans didn’t exactly kill an Arizona State team that had just lost its head coach and had been in turmoil. Wazzu is a scrappy bunch, and this will be a fight. If USC is going to be a legit playoff contender, they have to show they have more ability on defense, but I don’t think they will this week.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.