Well, it was a 4-4 week last week, which was a two-game improvement from the prior week. So, yay to get back to average, I guess. Not so much on the season mark though, which sits at a dismal 39-46-3, which is the worst in the years I’ve been doing the picks piece for this article through 11 weeks. Time to flip the script. Why not go 8-0 this week?
And now, on with this week’s picks...
MIAMI (+19) at Clemson
As discussed in my Monday Musings piece, I think Miami hangs and loses a close game to Clemson. Call this mainly a gut feeling. I think Jacurri Brown gives a gutsy performance against a good Clemson defense, but Miami can’t get the scoring drive they need to pull this out (and please don’t be a 2021 Alabama game stinker to make me look like a fool again). Miami has been disastrous this year against the spread, so hopefully that trend starts to even out on Saturday.
TENNESSEE (-22) at South Carolina
I think the only thing outside of Georgia’s defense that can stop Tennessee’s offense right now is Tennessee itself. I don’t think Spencer Rattler and a broken South Carolina offense can keep up, but....
Tennessee at South Carolina; OVER 66.5
...I do think they score enough to help get over this mark. Tennessee is putting up a 50 burger on Saturday, so South Carolina won’t need to do a whole lot to help out. And we’ve seen the Vols’ willingness to keep it in top gear until the final whistle blows for those CFP style points.
Illinois at MICHIGAN (-18)
Illinois has suddenly forgotten how to play football after a red-hot start to the season. Bad time to be going to the big house, where Michigan will be looking to impress the committee by blowing the Illini off the field.
GEORGIA (-22.5) at Kentucky
Georgia is a machine. Kentucky just lost to Vandy and is a shell of what people thought they’d be this year. This will get UGLY.
UAB at LSU (-14.5)
I really, really don’t understand this line. 3 of UAB’s last 4 games have been losses to *checks notes* Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, and UT-San Antonio. What?! LSU is playing really good football and should roll past UAB. This line should be double what it is. Vegas must think they know something, but I really don’t see it. Easy pick, easy cover.
TCU (-2.5) at Baylor
I thought this might be a stumbling block for TCU a few weeks ago, but the Bears really have looked like crap at home against some ok, but not great opponents (Oklahoma State and Kansas State). College football is a week to week game, but TCU is just playing too well now. Frogs by double digits in Waco.
USC (-2) at UCLA
I’ve never been high on UCLA this year (anyone who’s followed this column knows that), and the Trojans now are set up as the only team with a true CFP final four opportunity. I’ll take Caleb Williams and the USC offense to win a thrilling shootout on Saturday.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.