Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
The losing weeks continue, as I went 3-5 last week to drop the season mark further to 42-51-3. Tennessee and Miami both made me look foolish, and Georgia forgot that Kentucky this year is not good at all (but still played well enough to win, of course).
As usual, here are the lines courtesy of our friends over at DraftKings.
And now, on with this week’s picks...
Mississippi State at OLE MISS (-1.5)
Ole Miss’ late season swoon has cost them any shot of a New Years Six bowl, but they’re still good enough to win this game at home. These schools hate each other, so there won’t be a lack of focus or motivation, even with the nonsense Lane Kiffin coaching rumors swirling.
BAYLOR (+9) at Texas
The Horns showed up and showed out last week at Kansas, but Baylor’s offense and running game will give Texas enough problems to keep this a close game.
Arizona State at Arizona; OVER 65.5
Which Arizona will show up - the one that won at UCLA two weeks ago, or the one who laid an egg last week against Wazzu? I don’t know, but I still like Arizona’s offense enough to score a lot...and their defense enough to let the Sun Devils keep pace.
FLORIDA (+10) at Florida State
Whew buddy. I don’t have many reasons to like Florida hanging here, other than this being a rivalry game and Anthony Richardson being a one-man playmaker. This feels like a game where FSU hangs on late to win by a touchdown (much like how Vandy beat the Gators last week), so I’ll take 10 points here. Richardson has found ways late to turn blowouts at Tennessee and at Vandy into one touchdown games late, so it’s kind of his thing.
MICHIGAN (+7.5) at Ohio State
I don’t know why many think this will be a blowout. Sure, Michigan overlooked Illinois last week and nearly paid the price for it, but they won. Most of their games this year - aside from Illinois and Maryland - have been lopsided blowouts, so they can and will score plenty in Columbus. Don’t know who wins, but I’ll take a touchdown plus here.
Auburn at ALABAMA (-22)
Carnell Williams is a feel-good story with the heart that his Auburn Tigers showed last week in toppling Texas A&M 13-10. Saturday will be a completely different animal. Alabama will be looking to stick it to their overmatched rival in a last-ditch effort to move up from their far-too-lofty CFP ranking going into championship weekend. This gets ugly.
Tennessee at VANDERBILT (+13.5)
That was one of the most dispiriting losses I’ve seen in a long time last week for Tennessee. A complete non-show. With Hendon Hooker lost for the season and a New Years Six bowl on the line, how will the Vols respond? I’d think long and hard about hitting the Vandy moneyline (+410) on this one, but Vandy +13.5 is a pretty solid lock.
PITTSBURGH (-6.5) at Miami
There aren’t many Power 5 teams that Miami could beat convincingly right now. Players have been slipping out through the portal this week, and the season isn’t even over yet. It will be after Saturday, as Miami just doesn’t have the talent offensively right now to keep up with Pitt. The Panthers pull away in the second half, and the Canes officially (and mercifully) begin looking towards what is hopefully a much, much better 2023.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.