I’m not high on the Miami Hurricanes in 2023. Apparently, I’m not the only one.
DraftKings Sportsbook has already put out a number of early game lines for 2023, and the Hurricanes are among several of them. The Canes open their season as a 17.5-point home favorite over the other school with the same name - the Miami (OH) Redhawks. Considering the Redhawks were the team named Miami that actually made a bowl game last year (24-20 loss to UAB in the Bahamas Bowl), then that line might be a tad bit heavy. In any event, it should be a heads-are-going-to-roll game for someone if Miami doesn’t win it, but I wouldn’t lay 17.5 points on Miami right now against almost anyone in the country, sadly.
Next up is Texas A&M on September 9. This one might as well be called the 2022 Underachiever’s Bowl. As it stands, the Aggies are 6.5-point favorites in Hard Rock Stadium. As pessimistic as I am about Miami (call it wounded Cane syndrome), I honestly have no idea what to make of either team right now, as both were enigmas in 2022, and Miami looks markedly different in key areas. Apparently Vegas does, as they’re giving the edge to the team with the higher recent draft classes - oh, and the one that held Miami to 9 points last fall.
Clemson comes to Miami on Saturday, October 21 and is currently a 10-point favorite. The current line doesn’t come close to the 40-10 beatdown that Miami absorbed up at Clemson last year. Maybe DraftKings Sportsbook sees some level of improvement from Miami, but if you take away Miami’s home field advantage (add 3-4 points to the line) and add 3-4 more for Clemson (if the game was played at Death Valley), you’d have Clemson by around 16-18 points. Last year’s matchup at Clemson was the Tigers -18.5, give or take half a point. So -10 at Miami isn’t a surprising line. It just speaks, in a way, to the lack of progress perceived between the teams.
And lastly, Florida State is a 16.5-point favorite over Miami on November 11. Again, not surprising. FSU was an 8.5-point favorite at Hard Rock last year. Add 3-4 points each for removing the game from Hard Rock and adding in a Doak Campbell home field advantage, and you’re around a 15-16 point spread. So, again, close to the same basic line as last year, in reality.
Miami almost literally couldn’t have been worse last year. They were non-competitive and listless in far too many contests. Outcoached, outhustled, outsmarted. And until I see some sign of actual progress, I’ll still have doubts that they’re no better than this.
And, it appears, so will one particular sportsbook.