Film Forecast ‘23: Miami vs. Texas A&M

Two undefeated Power 5 programs meet at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, September 9th. The kickoff for the Texas A&M Aggies at the Miami Hurricanes is set for 3:30pm on ABC.

The 1-0 ‘Canes are coming off of an easy win over the MAC’s Miami-OH RedHawks while the Aggies blew the doors off of New Mexico 52-10 in Week One.

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The Doppler

Per Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics, Miami is ranked 24th overall, 40th on offense, 13th on defense, and 8th in special teams. Texas A&M is ranked 15th overall, 36th on offense, 4th on defense, and 37th in special teams.

The Aggies offense was 3-of-7 on 3rd down and 1-of-1 on 4th down. The A&M defense held the Lobos to 3-of-13 on 3rd down and 1-of-2 on 4th down. The Aggies committed nine penalties for 88 yards against the Lobos with a +1 turnover margin.

A&M kicker Randy Bond missed one field goal, but made seven PAT’s while punter Nik Constantinou averaged 46 yards per punt on two attempts.

New Mexico won the Josh Gattis honorary time of possession battle 34 to 25.

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Aggies Offense

Miami’s defensive backs will be tested against Conner Weigman and Evan Stewart. Weigman threw five touchdowns on 10.3 yards per attempt with no turnovers against New Mexico.

Stewart caught eight balls for 115 yards and two TD’s, Noah Thomas caught three more TD’s and the Aggies looked like a Bobby Petrino offense. They did surrender a couple of sacks which is something to keep an eye on for Miami.

Texas A&M will be a ‘running back by committee’ team, like Miami, in ‘23. Amari Daniels averaged 7.3 yards per carry and Le’Veon Moss scored on the ground while Weigman picked up 22 yards of his own.

Above- no1 breaks off the route (outside WR up top) to draw the CB down. no2 fakes an in and runs to the back pylon against a NB or S type. No3 runs mesh which draws a lot of attention to the middle of the field. Leaves a nice 1-on-1 matchup and a TD for Weigman.

Above- A ball that Kam Kinchens picks off? I think so. A&M keeps two extra in for max protection but this ball is slightly under thrown and you’d expect the All-American safety in Kinchens to turn and take this one away from them.

Above- This is just a WR and QB having a good feel. The CB is all over him but just can’t beat the receiver on this ball. Great throw, better catch. Nice coverage.

Above- Weigman doesn’t look that comfortable here. A&M loads up on big bodies inside the +3 yard line and bobble the snap with a trip at the end. Sloppy Week One stuff you’d assume is cleaned up by Week Two.

Above- Motion, play-action and flood concepts. All nice window dressing to throw off the defense’s’ OODA Loop.

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Aggies Defense

The Aggies defense held New Mexico to 4.7 yards per pass attempt with an interception and only 8.2 yards per catch. The Lobos were held to just a few plays over 15 yards all game. On the ground NM rushed for 2.8 yards per carry and one touchdown.

The Aggies defense came away with two sacks, 10 TFL’s and five pass breakups against the outgunned Lobos.

Above- Exactly like Miami OC Shannon Dawson drew it up for Mark Fletcher, fly motion one way, actual split zone the other. It screws with the safety rotation into the run fit while breaking the linebackers OODA Loop for that split second.

Above- End Zone view so you can see the rotation and slight pause of the LB’s from the best view in football.

Above- Fake toss to the wheel. One thing about wheel routes is you have to have a cut-off built in. Don’t just run them into the deep S or CB.

Above- the longer you wait to throw the shorter and to the sideline the throw needs to be. Throwing deeper later and middler is a bad idea for any QB.

Above- The Lobos ran some really slow developing stuff with no read option or RPO tagged. It got demolished time and again. Miami might not have the option king in Tyler Van Dyke back there, but they can RPO people to death with Xavier Restrepo, Colbie Young, Riley Williams, Jaleel Skinner etc. Use your length and quickness.

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The Forecast

On Sunday morning, Miami has the edge over Texas A&M on the ESPN win expectancy at 53.2%. Over their last five games, A&M is 3-2 while Miami is 2-3.

The Canyonero three keys to victory from the summer were:

1- Score more than nine points. I’m more confident in the offense than I was last year so I do expect more than nine points. But the ‘Canes are going to have to show it was more than a talent disparity when they face off with an equally talented roster.

2- Get pressure on Weigman. A&M allowed two sacks and five TFL’s to a really bad New Mexico team that finished 2-10 last season. Miami looked really quick off the edge and Wesley Bissainthe showed he can finish on blitzes.

3- Make the kicks that count. Andres Borregales was good but not great in ‘22, he’ll need to be great in a close game vs. the Aggies. Cristobal has shown that he’d rather take an easy three than risk six. Make your kicks.

Prediction: Texas A&M by 1.